George W. Bush is elected as the president of the United States for the second time. While the World reaction to Bush’s re-election varied from a sense of shock to a great relief, I had the opportunity to talk with some of the Indian colleagues (more precisely, Malayalees) here in Seattle.

It is very interesting to see the “personal favoritism” rustling with the “patriotic mind” of the average Indian in the US. John Kerry was by far the favorite of the candidates, but Indians in the US admit that Republican policies towards India are more in-line with the Indian policies on a wide variety of issues. People I spoke with offered a variety of reasons why they did not want Bush to be re-elected while reiterating that a Republican government at the White House was very important as far as India is concerned.

For most of the Indians in the US, especially for those in the IT industry, if there is one thing that they can’t stand, it is the lack of logical reasoning when you plan or do something. For them, Bush is arrogance and ignorance personified. He is a bad businessman, a bad communicator, the worst leader the US has ever seen, and then for some, he is just plain stupid.

In digging deeper, most Indians in the US find Bush’s ability to lead the world’s most powerful nation questionable. In the first four years, Bush apparently did nothing to improve economic situation in US. They argue that the War on Terrorism—which many think is fought on personal reasons than political or economical (calling it an “illegal war fought on fictitious reasons”)—has brought oil prices to the unprecedented levels and side effects will be seen in US economy sooner than later.

Another major complaint about Bush is his handling (or mishandling) of the policies with short-term interests in mind. Many believe that his tax cuts for the middle-class would not help US economy in the long term. This is because, instead of addressing the ever growing deficits which needs to be fixed now, he is pushing the US to more and more deficits that will have a long term consequence not only on US economy, but also on the economic stability of the rest of the World as well.

Most Indians in the US are for having an administration that arrives at decisions after discourse and consideration, not just “faith-based” gut thinking. For those who do not necessarily identify themselves as “pro-democrat” or “pro-republican”, want a more liberal government, not the one controlled closely by religion. Some people strongly believe that opposing stem cell research is walking backwards, but others find that as an opportunity for non-US companies to outshine in this area of research.

I also met Indians who wanted Bush to win not solely because India could benefit from the current administration or its policies. Their argument was, surprisingly, that Bush fought a reasonably good war on terrorism. They were worried that a Democratic government couldn’t deal with the war on terror as effectively as the Bush administration did. Some also feared that the defeat of Bush would have easily translated to a win for the Muslim fundamentalists including Osama Bin Laden. This would lead to a surge in Islamic terrorist activities.

Most of the Indians who wanted a Republican government (not necessarily a Bush government) argued that Bush favors outsourcing while Kerry was just tactical on the subject. Some feared that Kerry would tighten immigration to protect labor. It is believed that Republicans, being pro-business, would not do an immediate harm to outsourcing, immigration, or H1-B policies. Also, a byproduct of such policies such as lesser import controls, anti CTBT, less worried about linking environmental issues to import policy, anti EU, preemption as a policy etc. would do a world of good for countries like India. So, anything that could potentially change this equilibrium is bad for India.

I should admit that there is a significant minority that feels that India will not politically or economically gain any advantage by Bush or Kerry being the president. US is known for acting on its own self interest. They site the incident of Mr. Colin Powell flying to India to get specific intelligence information on some Pak-based militants, promising that US would support outlawing ISI, only to see that US-Pak ties being more stronger than ever.

Then what did happen to Kerry’s long and eventful campaign? Even though many supported Kerry for being “anyone other than Bush” initially when Democrats nominated Kerry, he gained his trust and worked his way into American voter’s mind by highlighting his Vietnam and senate service. Many people were instantly impressed with what he has done with the choices in his life and thought he would’ve made a great president with a vision in the mold of FDR and JFK. They believed Kerry would cool geopolitical issues, and always had a better chance of resolving the Iraq conflict with diplomacy. For the Indians in the US, Kerry seemed like a better choice of the two as far as support goes as they thought that Kerry was better equipped intellectually to tackle the hardest job on the planet. And there was of course the element of looking up to the US president for global leadership, and Kerry fit well into that profile better than Bush. However, there are many who argue that Kerry lost the advantage he gained during months leading up to the election. When speaking of terrorism and moral values (two big issues that played significant role in this election), it was hard to distinguish between the two candidates. He became less and less convincing as the election neared. But for most, he was not the choice, but just the lesser of the two evils.

This shift in thought brought new advantage for Bush. Republicans were quick to take advantage of this “change of hearts”. They successfully implanted the idea that any president at Bush's position could have done nothing to stop the economic recession the country went into. They termed it as “just a bad timing”. Bush administration convinced the middle-class Americans that the economic stimulus the last government has given was a significant effort, the reduced interest rates, and therefore reduced mortgage payments were a direct result of Bush’s meticulous thinking.

Now that the election is over, bush promising to “reach out” and “work together” with everyone, the tea-time talk of having a new leadership of the US has subsided. The political pundits are looking forward to the next task of analyzing Bush administrations’ plans for the next four years. With Bush claiming to be the “people’s choice” for the first time, we will have to play the wait and watch game on what looks like a short-term advantage for India as far as Bush economic policies are concerned. The future (so far), with Bush still at the helm, does not look as bleak as many thought couple of weeks ago. I would maintain that the news about Canadian and New Zealand immigration web sites reported to have had huge hit counts from US visitors after the election date as “coincidental”.

[Written on November 9, 2004]